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AIRGAIN INC (AIRG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered the third straight quarter of sequential revenue growth ($14.0M), stronger gross margins (GAAP 43.6%, non-GAAP 44.4%), and positive adjusted EBITDA ($0.25M); non-GAAP EPS was $0.01 and management stated the quarter met guidance .
  • Mix shifted toward consumer (Wi‑Fi 7) and embedded modems; automotive remained weak YoY, driving the overall topline decline vs Q3 2024 (-12.9%) .
  • Q4 2025 guidance: revenue $12.0–$14.0M (midpoint $13.0M), non‑GAAP gross margin 42.5%–45.5% (midpoint ~44%), non‑GAAP opex ~$5.8M, adjusted EBITDA ~$0.1M, non‑GAAP EPS ~breakeven; management flagged potential minor supply chain disruption costs but no material tariff impact .
  • Strategic catalysts advancing: T‑Mobile T‑Priority certification for AC‑Fleet and FCC certification for Lighthouse NCR; trials and a system integrator agreement in the U.S. plus Middle East and Latin America programs broaden 2026 visibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Third consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA,” with strong gross margins and Q3 results meeting guidance .
  • Consumer Wi‑Fi 7 momentum: cable operator shipments up; multi‑year Wi‑Fi 7 fiber gateway design win with a Tier‑1 U.S. carrier (targeted >5M units over five years, commercial launch in H2 2026) .
  • Platform milestones: AC‑Fleet achieved T‑Mobile T‑Priority certification; Lighthouse secured FCC certification, enabling U.S. commercialization and unique dual‑carrier aggregation trials with Tier‑1s and a top‑5 global tower operator .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY revenue declined (-12.9%, to $14.0M) primarily on weaker automotive demand; automotive fell to $0.5M vs $2.6M in Q3 2024 .
  • Enterprise revenue declined sequentially (-$0.3M QoQ) due to lower enterprise antenna sales; channel inventory and government deployment delays weigh on aftermarket antenna and custom enterprise products, likely persisting through H1 2026 .
  • Q4 revenue guide implies a ~7% sequential decline as consumer and enterprise sales moderate after strong YTD performance; management cautioned potential supply chain disruption costs albeit no material tariff impact .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$12.013 $13.623 $14.018
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.13) $(0.12) $(0.08)
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$(0.11) $(0.04) $0.01
GAAP Gross Margin %43.0% 42.9% 43.6%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %44.3% 43.8% 44.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(1.196) $(0.403) $0.250
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions, period-end)$7.401 $7.678 $7.091

Segment sales mix (target markets):

SegmentQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Enterprise ($USD Millions)$6.665 $7.152 $6.870
Consumer ($USD Millions)$6.854 $5.650 $6.658
Automotive ($USD Millions)$2.582 $0.821 $0.490
Total Sales ($USD Millions)$16.101 $13.623 $14.018

Consensus vs Actuals:

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025 (Guide)
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$12.07*$13.47*$14.13*$13.10*
Actual Revenue ($USD Millions)$12.013 $13.623 $14.018 —
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)$(0.10)*$(0.06)*$0.01*$(0.007)*
Actual Non-GAAP EPS ($)$(0.11) $(0.04) $0.01 —

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key notes:

  • Q3 revenue slightly below consensus ($14.02M vs $14.13M); non‑GAAP EPS matched consensus at $0.01 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Sales ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—$12.0–$14.0 (midpoint $13.0) New
GAAP Gross Margin %Q4 2025—41.3%–44.3% New
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %Q4 2025—42.5%–45.5% New
GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—~$7.2 New
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—~$5.8 New
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)Q4 2025—$(0.13) (midpoint) New
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q4 2025—~Breakeven (midpoint) New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—~$0.1 New
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q3 2025$0.01 (from Q2 guide) $0.01 actual Met

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AC‑Fleet certifications & go‑to‑marketAT&T FirstNet Capable, Verizon certification; expanding first responder focus FirstNet Trusted; launch of Go‑Kit Pro; first Tier‑2 utility win T‑Mobile T‑Priority achieved; pipeline ~80 opportunities with tiered cycles; utilities gaining traction Expanding certifications; pipeline building; utility market momentum
Lighthouse 5G NCRIntroduced Lighthouse Solar; Omantel partnership Advancing global trials; 2026 ramp expectations FCC certification; U.S. Tier‑1 trial incl. dual‑carrier aggregation; U.S. SI agreement in finalization; Middle East and LatAm dual‑operator trials Commercial readiness in U.S.; growing international pilots
Supply chain & tariffsMacro caution noted —No material tariff impact expected; may incur disruption costs Stable tariffs; minor supply risks
Product performance (Consumer Wi‑Fi 7)Strength building QoQ increase expected H2; Wi‑Fi 7 refresh Cable operator shipments up; Wi‑Fi 7 design win with Tier‑1 >5M units over five years Strengthening trajectory
Automotive aftermarket—Decline vs prior Continued weakness; drove YoY revenue decline Headwind persists
Government funding delays——Channel inventory overhang; deployment delays likely to persist through H1 2026 Lingering constraint
R&D and opex discipline—Non‑GAAP opex down; investment shifted toward platforms Tight opex management to keep EBITDA breakeven/positive while investing in platforms Focused, disciplined spend

Management Commentary

  • “In Q3, we delivered our third consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA… We achieved key certification milestones for both AC‑Fleet and Lighthouse, positioning us to scale these platforms in the coming year.” — Jacob Suen, CEO .
  • “Third quarter non-GAAP operating expenses were $6.1M… While total expenses have decreased, we continue to invest in our growth platforms… [core] engineering, sales, and marketing expenses decreased ~30%, while investment in our growth platforms increased ~30%.” — Michael Elbaz, CFO .
  • “We have secured a Tier 1 carrier trial… deploy our first dual carrier installations… This channel aggregation capability is unique to Lighthouse.” — Jacob Suen, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Wi‑Fi 7 Tier‑1 design win: Existing customer upgrade; deployment to begin in H2 2026; >5M units over five years; revenue impact visibility improves in H1 2026 .
  • Opex trajectory: Management aims for EBITDA break‑even/positive while keeping tight G&A and focusing incremental investment on growth platforms and winning designs in consumer and embedded modem lines .
  • Near‑term dynamics: Q4 guide reflects temporary moderation in consumer/enterprise after strong YTD; limited tariff impact but potential supply chain disruptions .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $14.02M vs consensus $14.13M* (slight miss); non‑GAAP EPS $0.01 vs consensus Primary EPS $0.01* (in line) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Q4 2025: Management guides $13.0M midpoint and ~44% non‑GAAP GM midpoint; consensus revenue $13.10M* and EPS around $(0.007)* suggest modest expectations aligned with guide . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implication: Expect limited estimate changes on EPS; revenue models may trim slightly given Q4 moderation and persistent automotive/government headwinds .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix quality improved: Gross margins expanded on better enterprise/consumer product margins, supporting profitability leverage as platforms scale .
  • Near‑term: Q4 guide implies ~7% QoQ revenue decline; watch for supply chain costs and consumer/enterprise demand cadence into 2026 .
  • Platform catalysts: AC‑Fleet certifications across AT&T/Verizon/T‑Mobile and a growing utility pipeline can convert Tier‑2/Tier‑1 wins in 2026; Lighthouse U.S. SI agreement and dual‑carrier trials broaden infrastructure TAM .
  • Consumer Wi‑Fi 7 tailwinds: The Tier‑1 fiber gateway design win (>5M units over five years) provides multi‑year embedded antenna revenue visibility; monitor ODM ramps and operator timelines .
  • Watch automotive normalization: Automotive remains weak YoY; sustained recovery would be incremental upside but not required for margin expansion .
  • Capital discipline: Non‑GAAP opex down while platform investment rises; management targeting EBITDA breakeven/positive near term .
  • Trading lens: Limited downside surprise risk given matched EPS and modest revenue miss; stock narrative likely hinges on execution toward 2026 platform ramps, Wi‑Fi 7 design win progress, and formalization of the U.S. system integrator agreement for Lighthouse .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*